Antofagasta's Copper Production Rises 7%, but Higher Costs Cloud Outlook

Antofagasta increased quarterly copper production by 7% and maintained its full-year guidance. However, higher diesel costs and a cautious 2027 outlook are raising questions about future mining margins.

Antofagasta has delivered a recovery in copper production, but rising operating costs are putting fresh pressure on the Chilean mining giant.

The company reported 151,900 tonnes of copper production in the third quarter, a 7% increase from the previous quarter, supported by improved output at its Los Pelambres operation.

Antofagasta maintained its full-year production forecast of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes, despite output over the first nine months falling 8% from a year earlier.

Rising costs challenge the recovery

The production improvement comes alongside a less encouraging development for profitability.

Antofagasta increased its 2026 cash cost forecast before by-product credits to $2.60–$2.70 per pound, up from $2.40–$2.60, largely reflecting higher diesel prices.

The company also introduced 2027 production guidance of 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes as expansion projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres move towards completion.

Those investments could support future output, although lower grades at some operations remain a challenge.

Investor Take: Antofagasta's production recovery is encouraging, but higher operating costs could limit the financial benefits.

For investors, the important measure is how efficiently the company converts additional copper production into cash flow.

Watch copper prices, cost inflation and progress on its major expansion projects. Stronger output will have greater value if Antofagasta can protect margins while completing its investment programme.