ASML’s AI Orders Put Chipmaking Capacity Under Pressure

ASML says planned production may fall short of customer demand through 2028. Strong quarterly results support the AI investment outlook, while capacity expansion becomes an increasingly important test for shareholders.

ASML’s customers are looking years ahead—and the company says its planned production may struggle to keep up.

The semiconductor equipment maker reported €11.7 billion in third-quarter sales and approximately €5 billion in net income on Wednesday. Gross margin reached 57.5%, helped by strong demand for upgrades to equipment already installed at customers’ factories.

ASML expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, with full-year revenue between €44 billion and €45 billion.

Demand stretches beyond 2027

Management says customers are increasing their equipment forecasts, primarily because of expected AI investment. Some have expressed interest in ordering machines for 2029 and even 2030.

ASML now expects its planned supply to fall short of customer demand in both 2027 and 2028. It is investigating further capacity expansion.

That offers an encouraging signal for investors assessing whether the AI infrastructure boom has staying power. However, interest in future orders still needs to become firm commitments and completed deliveries.

Investor Take: Strong demand supports ASML’s growth outlook, but manufacturing capacity will help determine how quickly it can deliver. Watch expansion plans, shipment growth and margins as production increases. For US semiconductor investors, the results also provide a useful indication of customers’ willingness to keep investing in chipmaking capacity.