Middle East Oil Exports Recover, but Supply Gap Remains

Middle East oil exports are recovering, led by Saudi Arabia, but remain about 6 million barrels a day below February levels. October shipments will show whether the improvement can last.

Oil shipments from key Middle East producers have rebounded this month, offering a clearer picture of how much supply has returned to the market.

Exports are on track to reach 12.8 million barrels a day in September, according to preliminary data from Kpler. That is the highest level since the conflict with Iran began in February. Saudi Arabia has been a major driver of the increase, with its shipments expected to rise to about 5.4 million barrels a day from 2.45 million in August.

The recovery could ease some pressure on buyers if the shipments continue. For oil producers, refiners and transport companies, the volume of oil actually leaving the region matters as much as daily moves in crude prices.

Supply has yet to return to its earlier level. Regional exports remain about 6 million barrels a day below February’s 18.8 million, according to Kpler. The September figures are also preliminary.

Investors will be watching whether the rise in shipments holds through October. A sustained recovery would improve the supply outlook; renewed disruption would leave the market exposed to a substantial gap.